News Investigators/ The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has projected 3.1% global growth in 2026, while warning of rising risks
Ms Georgieva gave the projection at the Managing Director’s briefing on the Global Policy Agenda, on Wednesday in Bangkok, Thailand.
She said that the global economic resilience was approaching its limits amid persistent shocks, rising inflation and mounting debt pressures.
Ms Georgieva said that the global growth was projected at 3.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from April’s forecast but below the 3.4 per cent recorded in 2025.
She attributed the outlook to opposing forces, including the negative energy supply shock from the Middle East conflict and increased demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
According to her, economies integrated into AI supply chains and energy-exporting countries unaffected by conflicts are performing relatively better.
The IMF managing director said that low-income countries and fragile, conflict-affected states faced the greatest pressures, particularly energy-importing nations excluded from the technology boom.
Ms Georgieva also warned that rising bond yields in advanced economies were increasing borrowing costs and worsening debt-servicing pressures in emerging and low-income countries.
She attributed the higher yields to persistent inflation, stronger investor demand, anticipated AI-driven growth and weak fiscal fundamentals.
She said that repeated economic shocks had depleted fiscal and energy buffers, while many countries failed to rebuild adequate reserves after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Governments should urgently strengthen public finances through improved revenue mobilisation, rationalised spending and better public financial management.
“They should protect vulnerable citizens from rising food and energy prices through temporary, targeted assistance rather than suppressing market prices, ” she said.
On monetary policy, Georgieva urged central banks to remain focused on price stability, adding that tighter policies may be necessary where inflation remains above target.
She also cautioned that AI, despite its potential to boost productivity and prosperity, posed risks to financial stability and cybersecurity.
“AI-enabled cyberattacks can disrupt critical systems, including financial infrastructure, requiring authorities to strengthen cyber resilience and address excessive market concentration,” she said.
Georgieva urged governments to improve the business environment, promote competition, invest in digital and energy infrastructure, and adopt active labour market policies.
She said that private-sector participation would be essential to expanding AI adoption, creating jobs and ensuring broader economic opportunities.
She said that the fund had completed policy reforms to improve risk identification, strengthen surveillance, support achievable country-specific reforms and enhance debt sustainability assessments.
Georgieva reaffirmed the IMF’s commitment to helping member countries navigate global economic uncertainties.
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