News Investigators/ An economist, Ephraim Audu, says the strong growth recorded in the agricultural sector, particularly crop production, reflects the resilience of Nigerian farmers but requires structural reforms to remain sustainable.
Mr Audu, who is also the President of Agricultural Agenda Nigeria Initiative (AANI) said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria(NAN) in Abuja on Sunday.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, higher than the 4.23 per cent recorded in quarter two of 2025.
The report also showed that the agriculture sector grew by 4.39 per cent in Q2 2026, up from 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025, with crop production contributing 17.66 per cent, second only to trade at 17.93 per cent.
Mr Audu said the performance demonstrated agriculture’s potential to drive economic growth, create jobs and strengthen food security in spite of insecurity and farmer-herder conflicts.
He said the growth could have been driven by increased cultivation and production, favourable output in some subsectors, higher agricultural prices and growing demand for food.
“The performance of crop production is particularly significant because it demonstrates the enormous capacity of agriculture to support both economic growth and food security.
“However, we should be careful not to interpret increased agricultural output as evidence that the underlying structural problems in the sector have been solved,” he said.
He said insecurity, displacement of farming communities, limited access to land, inadequate irrigation and high input costs remained major constraints to agricultural productivity.
Mr Audu also identified poor mechanisation, post-harvest losses, inadequate storage facilities and limited access to affordable credit as challenges to sustained growth in the sector.
He urged the Federal Government to shift from a focus on agricultural output to productivity and value-chain development.
According to him, this means securing farming communities, expanding irrigation, mechanisation and extension services, improving access to finance and quality inputs, and strengthening rural roads and storage facilities.
He also called for stronger links between farmers, markets and agro-processing industries to reduce post-harvest losses and increase value addition.
“If structural constraints were addressed, agriculture could become a major driver of inclusive growth, employment, food security and rural prosperity.
“Failure to do so could leave the sector vulnerable to climate shocks, insecurity and rising production costs,” he said.
Mr Audu described the 4.43 per cent real GDP growth recorded in Q2 2026 as encouraging, noting that it accelerated from 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026.
He, however, cautioned that the quality and composition of the growth were more important than the headline figure.
He said the next two to three quarters would determine whether the expansion was structural, adding that sustained growth should be reflected in higher employment, private investment, productivity and household incomes.
He said GDP growth did not automatically translate into improved living standards, especially where rising living costs outpaced household incomes.
“Nigeria’s challenge is not simply to expand the size of the economy, but to ensure that expansion translates into higher purchasing power and improved welfare.
“Growth is necessary, but development is the ultimate objective,” he said.
On the outlook for the next six months, the economist described the economy as “cautiously optimistic”, saying the recent performance suggests that economic activity is gaining momentum.
Audu said the outlook would depend on whether the momentum could spread across productive sectors and translate into stronger employment, investment and household demand.
“If non-oil sectors continue to strengthen, agricultural productivity improves, manufacturing expands, energy supply becomes more reliable and investment increases, growth could accelerate further,” he said.
He urged the Federal Government to pursue policies that would deepen economic diversification, improve agricultural and manufacturing productivity, strengthen infrastructure and energy supply, and attract long-term private investment.
“My assessment is that Nigeria is showing important signs of recovery, but recovery should not be confused with transformation.
“The ultimate measure of economic success should be whether growth is generating productive jobs, increasing real incomes, reducing poverty and improving the purchasing power and quality of life of Nigerians,” he said.
The economist urged the government to complement its macroeconomic stabilisation policies with targeted interventions aimed at addressing the challenges facing households, farmers and businesses.
Audu said policies should be assessed not only by their impact on GDP but also by their effect on household income, food affordability, employment, poverty, productivity and access to essential services.
He said the ultimate objective should be to transform GDP growth into broad-based and inclusive prosperity.
NAN
