By John Onyeukwu
Cardinal John Onaiyekan’s warning is not fundamentally about President Tinubu. It is about a recurring danger in Nigerian politics: when the pursuit of electoral victory becomes the organising principle of the state, governance itself becomes a casualty.
The Cardinal’s recent assertion that the Tinubu administration appears determined to win the 2027 elections “by all means” has provoked strong reactions across Nigeria’s political spectrum. Supporters of the government dismiss the comments as an unfair characterization of an administration pursuing difficult but necessary reforms, while critics see them as confirmation of an increasingly politicized governing approach.
Yet both reactions risk missing the larger issue. The significance of the Cardinal’s intervention lies not in its political implications but in the governance question it raises: when does the pursuit of political survival begin to overshadow the responsibility of governing?
This question extends far beyond President Bola Tinubu. It goes to the heart of Nigeria’s democratic experience since 1999. Across successive administrations, a familiar pattern has emerged. Governments enter office with ambitious reform agendas, only to find governance increasingly shaped by electoral calculations as election cycles advance. Public spending becomes politically targeted, appointments become politically strategic, and institutions gradually shift from solving national problems to managing political risks. In such circumstances, the state becomes less an instrument of development and more an instrument of political preservation.
The Catholic bishops reportedly told President Tinubu that Nigeria is bleeding. While the language may appear dramatic, it reflects realities confronting millions of Nigerians. Inflation remains elevated despite signs of moderation. Food prices continue to strain household incomes, while businesses grapple with energy costs, exchange-rate volatility, weak demand, and rising operating expenses. Insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural production and supply chains, while unemployment and underemployment fuel frustration and weaken confidence in the future. These realities shape how citizens assess government performance.
To be fair, the Tinubu administration inherited a fragile economic structure marked by fiscal pressures, mounting debt obligations, foreign exchange distortions, fuel subsidy burdens, declining oil production, and a deteriorating investment climate. Few serious analysts would dispute that significant economic restructuring was necessary. Fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalization addressed distortions that had become fiscally unsustainable. State revenues have increased substantially, foreign reserves have improved, and international financial institutions have broadly supported aspects of the reform programme.
The administration has consistently argued that many of Nigeria’s current challenges predate President Tinubu’s tenure. Responding to concerns about hardship and hunger, the President recently noted that hunger existed before he was born and that population growth was beyond his control. At one level, the statement reflects reality. Nigeria’s poverty and development challenges are the product of decades of policy failures, weak institutions, insecurity, and missed opportunities. It would therefore be unfair to assess the administration as though it inherited a healthy economy and a well-functioning state.
Yet democratic governance rests on a simple principle: governments are not elected to explain inherited problems; they are elected to address them. Citizens may recognize that today’s challenges accumulated over many years, but they ultimately judge leaders by whether conditions improve under their watch. History rarely remembers administrations for the problems they inherited. It remembers them for the effectiveness of their response. The question is not whether hunger existed before this administration, but whether living standards, opportunity, and economic security will be better by the time Nigerians return to the polls in 2027.
John Onyeukwu writes from Abuja.